Posted March 25, 2020 when shut downs were just beginning.
Be sure to watch this powerful interview after reading the below.
There are two primary factors we must know to accurately assess the significance of any virus.
1. How deadly is it?
2. How contagious is it?
These are very different aspects that must be considered separately.
If a virus is both highly contagious and deadly, we have a significant problem.
If it's highly deadly but not very contagious, that means few will get it but those who do have a high risk of dying.
If it's highly contagious but not very deadly, many will get it, but very few will die from it. Certainly unpleasant, but not very life-threatening. Not unlike the flu.
The bottom line is both must be true for a virus to be of epic proportions and justify drastic measures.
As the numbers come in it is becoming clearer Corona is in the latter group. Though it's still uncertain how *contagious it is - it may turn out to be less contagious than originally thought - one thing is becoming clear, it's not very deadly at all. They are even saying many will get it and not even know they had it or they will display virtually no if any symptoms i.e. asymptomatic - which unfortunately is being played up to create more fear i.e. how do we know who has it?!
Death is no good for any reason, but the vast majority - not all - of deaths from this virus are the elderly (75 and older on average) who have a significant preexisting illness. This is statistically, a very small segment of society. This is exactly why the number of deaths compared to other viruses is low. If this spread as far as it could go, it would still be to a small - though certainly not unimportant - segment of the population. As of this post (3/25/20), we are around 1000 deaths compared to well over 20,000 (next to last bullet point in the blue box of the CDC site) for other flu-like viruses to date. Regular flu appears just as deadly. Curiously, this is rarely a part of the conversation in most reporting. When it is, those who raise it are often ridiculed by mainstream media.
So why all the fear and caution around Covid? The media overall - which has a history of biased reporting - is doing very little balanced reporting, raising considerable and unnecessary fear. They play up the scary parts - potentially highly contagious - and are quiet about the reassuring parts - low death rate to a small and feeble segment of the population (btw this isn't a derogatory statement but an observation. I happen to almost be in this age group). When this latter point is mentioned it is only in passing and rarely focused on. We constantly hear about the rising number of deaths and infections, but we rarely hear the significance of who is dying and under what conditions.
Also, what proportion are those deaths compared to the number infected? Just on the reported infections, we are not that far from the percentages of the regular flu. The number infected is larger than reported - possibly much larger - which would make the ratio of those dying to those infected much lower i.e. making COVID-19 even less deadly than regular flu. These ratios are very significant but rarely mentioned.
Also, like past virus scares, COVID-19 is new so there is virtually no immunity built up. However, as more low-risk segments are exposed, it actually helps build our collective **(herd) immune system as a society, helping prevent future outbreaks - the very strategy behind vaccines - yet MSM wrings their hands over it resurrecting when cold weather returns. Since the death rate is low and among a small segment, "social distancing" - which isn't social at all, it's physical distancing - may actually be counterproductive - though it's certainly wise to quarantine those with symptoms as with any flu or flu-like virus. I am more than willing to self-quarantine if it allows the low-risk population to resume regular activities. Just like we do with any other bug.
I think there are also political reasons for the hype and worth exploring, but not the focus of this piece. If you wish to know my opinion, feel free to leave a comment.
There are still some unknowns about this virus, so the media (and we, along with the various governmental bodies) assume the worst. At a minimum, the points raised in this piece should have an equal part of the discussion instead of being minimized or ridiculed. This would go a long way in increasing understanding and reducing fear.
The fact that the media is not addressing these, undermines their credibility at best. But what we know is important and encouraging. As the actual data comes in, hopefully, it will be disseminated. There will then be a declining concern and the solutions to address it must be modified to fit the latest data.
There are also some very good reports coming in on the effectiveness of the malaria drug HCQ (go to the 2:21 mark of this video) combined with other medicines. Unfortunately, this too is being quieted, downplayed, ridiculed, or outright misrepresented by the media.
The biggest outbreak is a virus, but a virus of fear. Due in great part to the sensationalist media. What is needed is facts, not fear. Making decisions based primarily on fear never results in the best outcome. We must also engage our reason.
Fear is the enemy of truth and also the friend of deception. Lies ride on the coattails of fear.
The bottom line... based on the facts there is much more room for optimism than originally thought. I predict this will be a none story by the end of May if all the facts are considered.
There are also some very good reports coming in on the effectiveness of the malaria drug HCQ (go to the 2:21 mark of this video) combined with other medicines. Unfortunately, this too is being quieted, downplayed, ridiculed, or outright misrepresented by the media.
The biggest outbreak is a virus, but a virus of fear. Due in great part to the sensationalist media. What is needed is facts, not fear. Making decisions based primarily on fear never results in the best outcome. We must also engage our reason.
Fear is the enemy of truth and also the friend of deception. Lies ride on the coattails of fear.
The bottom line... based on the facts there is much more room for optimism than originally thought. I predict this will be a none story by the end of May if all the facts are considered.
For an update on the total number of deaths projected click here.
If interested the following articles address some of the above points as well:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8076395/Leading-doctor-claims-coronavirus-isnt-deadly-feared-death-rate-1.html
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
**For an interesting article on herd immunity, click here.
If you are wondering why I have a less than charitable view of the main stream media click here.
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*I am doing a personal experiment on how contagious this virus is - don't worry, I am the only person at risk. I'll explain later. I am only 3 days in (assuming a 14-day incubation period. Some are now saying the average incubation time is 5 to 6 days) and will give a report in 11 more days. If interested, I'll come back then with the results.
Update as of April 1st, day 8: No symptoms whatsoever.
Update as of April 8th, day 15: Symptom-free with one day past the guesstimated 14 day incubation period.
So what was my test? I went shopping at the grocery store and did what I normally do. I took no extra precautions. Opened the store door, grabbed a cart, bought some trail mix (using the "public" scoops), and ate some once I got in the car, with no precautions i.e. no gloves, no hand washing etc. Some might think I am crazy but I have done enough research to believe otherwise - not to mention I taught high school Biology and my best grade in college was Biology. My "experiment" began on March 23. Granted, one person's experience may not be worth much scientifically, but it helps confirm for me what I already believe is the case. The whole covid scare is more hype than science. I also helped my friends (March 28) who work with the homeless. They have a trailer that houses portable showers/ laundry units and take them to a camp here for the homeless. So we went and helped 30 folks get spruced up a bit with a warm shower and clean their laundry. I took no precautions than I would any other day. Again, this is not likely to convince anyone of anything. btw feeling fine but a bit tired after being on my feet from 9 to 5. Pretty good for a 66-year-old dude, I suspect.
Update: as of Oct 2021 I have not experienced sickness of any kind and have not taken any precautions since my experiment e.g. I do not "social distance" or wear a mask... ever.
Fair points. Here’s some data I got from a recent story.
ReplyDelete“In the U.S., it's likely that the case fatality rate from coronavirus will end up somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, once a broad cross-section of the population has been tested, Lawrence says.
But that's no reason for the nation to relax, he adds.
"To put it into perspective, that's 5 to 10 times more fatal than flu," Lawrence says, a disease that kills between 12,000 and 61,000 people a year.
If the infection rate is higher, then the low mortality rate becomes more dyer. At current exponential growth rates (5x higher just three days from your post; 3/27-100000 cases), if half the country gets infected we’re looking at 1.6 million deaths, which dwarfs flu deaths. Based on that possibility, the physically distancing is likely necessary to minimize a critical mass of infection. I do agree that we’ll need to have conversations before long about how to transition of out of this, but not until there’s evidence the hospitals in crowded places can support the sick because that’s the other factor that’ll keep mortality rates lower—available treatment for the vulnerable.